Creating a circular EV battery value chain: End-of-life strategies and future perspective

• Material flow analysis (MFA) to estimate the future demand for battery materials. The multi-level perspective (MLP) on transition is adopted investigate scenarios. Transport policy has a clear impact material demands and recycling potential. Circular economy will disrupt current business models supply chain. combination of MFA MLP provides more insights into circular transition. rapid uptake electric vehicles (EVs) be vital decarbonise transport sector achieve climate change targets. However, this leading an increased key materials associated resource challenges supply-chain risks. On other hand, discarded EV batteries create opportunities second life recycling. This study presents scenario-driven volume wastes potentially generated in Sweden materials, considering potential fleet, chemistry developments, end-of-life strategies batteries. Further, we combine with socio-technical approach explore how different developments affect both flows underlying systems future. Recycling reduce primary by 25–64% during 2040–2050 based projected demand, meaning that waste streams could cover considerable part raw demands. Second-use can promote circularity yet postpones potentials. From perspective, promoting recycling, second-life use advanced technologies entail system disruption transformational changes technology, markets, models, policy, infrastructure user practices. Demand high-capacity grid decarbonisation aviation applications may contribute emergence niche technologies. Each scenario highlights need effective frameworks foster value